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Climate change and mixed forests: how do altered survival probabilities impact economically desirable species proportions of Norway spruce and European beech? / Carola Paul in Annals of Forest Science, vol 76 n° 1 (March 2019)  

Public [article]  inAnnals of Forest Science > vol 76 n° 1 (March 2019) Titre : Climate change and mixed forests: how do altered survival probabilities impact economically desirable species proportions of Norway spruce and European beech? Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Carola Paul, Auteur ; Susanne Brandl, Auteur ; Stefan Friedrich, Auteur ; Wolfgang Falk, Auteur ; Fabian Härtl, Auteur ; Thomas Knoke, Auteur Année de publication : 2019 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] Allemagne [Termes IGN] aménagement forestier [Termes IGN] analyse de survie [Termes IGN] biodiversité végétale [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] Fagus sylvatica [Termes IGN] gestion forestière durable [Termes IGN] peuplement mélangé [Termes IGN] Picea abies [Termes IGN] reboisement [Termes IGN] régénération (sylviculture) [Termes IGN] restauration écologique [Vedettes matières IGN] Economie forestière Résumé : (auteur) Context : Climate change is expected to increase natural hazards in European forests. Uncertainty in expected tree mortality and resulting potential economic consequences complicate regeneration decisions. Aims : This study aims to analyze the economic consequences of altered survival probabilities for mixing Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under different climate change scenarios. We investigate whether management strategies such as species selection and type of mixture (mixed stands vs. block mixture) could mitigate adverse financial effects of climate change. Methods : The bio-economic modelling approach combines a parametric survival model with modern portfolio theory. We estimate the economically optimal species mix under climate change, accounting for the biophysical and economic effects of tree mixtures. The approach is demonstrated using an example from Southeast Germany. Results : The optimal tree species mixtures under simulated climate change effects could buffer but not completely mitigate undesirable economic consequences. Even under optimally mixed forest stands, the risk-adjusted economic value decreased by 28%. Mixed stands economically outperform block mixtures for all climate scenarios. Conclusion : Our results underline the importance of mixed stands to mitigate the economic consequences of climate change. Mechanistic bio-economic models help to understand consequences of uncertain input variables and to design purposeful adaptation strategies. Numéro de notice : A2019-041 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article nature-HAL : ArtAvecCL-RevueIntern DOI : 10.1007/s13595-018-0793-8 Date de publication en ligne : 08/02/2019 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-018-0793-8 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=92039 [article]

Static site indices from different national forest inventories: harmonization and prediction from site conditions / Susanne Brandl in Annals of Forest Science, vol 75 n° 2 (June 2018)  

Public [article]  inAnnals of Forest Science > vol 75 n° 2 (June 2018) Titre : Static site indices from different national forest inventories: harmonization and prediction from site conditions Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Susanne Brandl, Auteur ; Tobias Mette, Auteur ; Wolfgang Falk, Auteur ; Patrick Vallet, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2018 Note générale : Bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] Allemagne [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] dendrochronologie [Termes IGN] Fagus (genre) [Termes IGN] France (administrative) [Termes IGN] harmonisation des données [Termes IGN] hauteur des arbres [Termes IGN] inventaire forestier étranger (données) [Termes IGN] inventaire forestier national (données France) [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] Picea abies [Termes IGN] productivité [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (Auteur) Key message: Static site indices determined from stands’ top height are derived from different forest inventory sources with height and age information and thus enable comparisons and modeling of a species’ productivity encompassing large environmental gradients. Context: Estimating forest site productivity under changing climate requires models that cover a wide range of site conditions. To exploit different inventory sources, we need harmonized measures and procedures for the productive potential. Static site indices (SI) appear to be a good choice. Aims: We propose a method to derive static site indices for different inventory designs and apply it to six tree species of the German and French National Forest Inventory (NFI). For Norway spruce and European beech, the climate dependency of SI is modeled in order to estimate trends in productivity due to climate change. Methods: Height and age measures are determined from the top diameters of a species at a given site. The SI is determined for a reference age of 100 years. Results: The top height proves as a stable height measure that can be derived harmoniously from German and French NFI. The boundaries of the age-height frame are well described by the Chapman-Richards function. For spruce and beech, generalized additive models of the SI against simple climate variables lead to stable and plausible model behavior. Conclusion: The introduced methodology permits a harmonized quantification of forest site productivity by static site indices. Predicting productivity in dependence on climate illustrates the benefits of combined datasets. Numéro de notice : A2018-323 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article nature-HAL : ArtAvecCL-RevueIntern DOI : 10.1007/s13595-018-0737-3 Date de publication en ligne : 07/05/2018 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-018-0737-3 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=90464 [article]

Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany / Helge Walentowski in Annals of forest research, vol 60 n° 1 (January - June 2017)  

Public [article]  inAnnals of forest research > vol 60 n° 1 (January - June 2017) . - pp 101 - 126 Titre : Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Helge Walentowski, Auteur ; Wolfgang Falk, Auteur ; Tobias Mette, Auteur ; Jörg Kunz, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2017 Article en page(s) : pp 101 - 126 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] Acer campestre [Termes IGN] Allemagne [Termes IGN] analyse de sensibilité [Termes IGN] dendrochronologie [Termes IGN] Fagus sylvatica [Termes IGN] feuillu [Termes IGN] Fraxinus excelsior [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] niche écologique [Termes IGN] Pinus sylvestris [Termes IGN] Quercus pedunculata [Termes IGN] Quercus sessiliflora [Termes IGN] sécheresse [Termes IGN] sorbus aria [Termes IGN] Sorbus torminalis [Termes IGN] Tilia platyphyllos [Termes IGN] Ulmus minor [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (auteur) We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs) using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA) from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea), whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted) is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems. Numéro de notice : A2017-611 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article DOI : 10.15287/afr.2016.789 En ligne : http://doi.org/10.15287/afr.2016.789 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=86919 [article]