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Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming / Yunhe Yin in Scientific reports, vol 8 (2018)  

Public [article]  inScientific reports > vol 8 (2018) Titre : Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Yunhe Yin, Auteur ; Danyang Ma, Auteur ; Shaohong Wu, Auteur Année de publication : 2018 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] Chine [Termes IGN] croissance des arbres [Termes IGN] écologie forestière [Termes IGN] forêt tropicale [Termes IGN] production primaire nette [Termes IGN] risque naturel [Termes IGN] sécheresse [Termes IGN] vingt-et-unième siècle [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (auteur) Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021–2050) to 27.62% (2071–2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China. Numéro de notice : A2018-009 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article DOI : 10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6 En ligne : http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-18798-6 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=89002 [article]