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Climate change and mixed forests: how do altered survival probabilities impact economically desirable species proportions of Norway spruce and European beech? / Carola Paul in Annals of Forest Science, vol 76 n° 1 (March 2019)  

Public [article]  inAnnals of Forest Science > vol 76 n° 1 (March 2019) Titre : Climate change and mixed forests: how do altered survival probabilities impact economically desirable species proportions of Norway spruce and European beech? Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Carola Paul, Auteur ; Susanne Brandl, Auteur ; Stefan Friedrich, Auteur ; Wolfgang Falk, Auteur ; Fabian Härtl, Auteur ; Thomas Knoke, Auteur Année de publication : 2019 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] Allemagne [Termes IGN] aménagement forestier [Termes IGN] analyse de survie [Termes IGN] biodiversité végétale [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] Fagus sylvatica [Termes IGN] gestion forestière durable [Termes IGN] peuplement mélangé [Termes IGN] Picea abies [Termes IGN] reboisement [Termes IGN] régénération (sylviculture) [Termes IGN] restauration écologique [Vedettes matières IGN] Economie forestière Résumé : (auteur) Context : Climate change is expected to increase natural hazards in European forests. Uncertainty in expected tree mortality and resulting potential economic consequences complicate regeneration decisions. Aims : This study aims to analyze the economic consequences of altered survival probabilities for mixing Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under different climate change scenarios. We investigate whether management strategies such as species selection and type of mixture (mixed stands vs. block mixture) could mitigate adverse financial effects of climate change. Methods : The bio-economic modelling approach combines a parametric survival model with modern portfolio theory. We estimate the economically optimal species mix under climate change, accounting for the biophysical and economic effects of tree mixtures. The approach is demonstrated using an example from Southeast Germany. Results : The optimal tree species mixtures under simulated climate change effects could buffer but not completely mitigate undesirable economic consequences. Even under optimally mixed forest stands, the risk-adjusted economic value decreased by 28%. Mixed stands economically outperform block mixtures for all climate scenarios. Conclusion : Our results underline the importance of mixed stands to mitigate the economic consequences of climate change. Mechanistic bio-economic models help to understand consequences of uncertain input variables and to design purposeful adaptation strategies. Numéro de notice : A2019-041 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article nature-HAL : ArtAvecCL-RevueIntern DOI : 10.1007/s13595-018-0793-8 Date de publication en ligne : 08/02/2019 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-018-0793-8 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=92039 [article]