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Non-stationary extreme value analysis of ground snow loads in the French Alps: a comparison with building standards / Erwann Le Roux in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol 20 n° 11 (November 2020)  

Public [article]  inNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences > vol 20 n° 11 (November 2020) . - pp 2961 – 2977 Titre : Non-stationary extreme value analysis of ground snow loads in the French Alps: a comparison with building standards Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Erwann Le Roux, Auteur ; Guillaume Evin, Auteur ; Nicolas Eckert, Auteur ; Juliette Blanchet, Auteur Année de publication : 2020 Article en page(s) : pp 2961 – 2977 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Applications de télédétection [Termes IGN] Alpes (France) [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] construction [Termes IGN] épaisseur [Termes IGN] estimation des charges [Termes IGN] manteau neigeux [Termes IGN] norme [Termes IGN] sécurité [Termes IGN] série temporelle [Termes IGN] toit [Termes IGN] valeur limite Mots-clés libres : Ground snow load  surcharge de neige Résumé : (auteur) In a context of climate change, trends in extreme snow loads need to be determined to minimize the risk of structure collapse. We study trends in 50-year return levels of ground snow load (GSL) using non-stationary extreme value models. These trends are assessed at a mountain massif scale from GSL data, provided for the French Alps from 1959 to 2019 by a meteorological reanalysis and a snowpack model. Our results indicate a temporal decrease in 50-year return levels from 900 to 4200 m, significant in the northwest of the French Alps up to 2100 m. We detect the most important decrease at 900 m with an average of −30 % for return levels between 1960 and 2010. Despite these decreases, in 2019 return levels still exceed return levels designed for French building standards under a stationary assumption. At worst (i.e. at 1800 m), return levels exceed standards by 15 % on average, and half of the massifs exceed standards. We believe that these exceedances are due to questionable assumptions concerning the computation of standards. For example, these were devised with GSL, estimated from snow depth maxima and constant snow density set to 150 kg m−3, which underestimate typical GSL values for the snowpack. Numéro de notice : A2020-713 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : IMAGERIE Nature : Article DOI : 10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020 Date de publication en ligne : 06/11/2020 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2961-2020 Format de la ressource électronique : url article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=96279 [article]