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Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River / A. Curran in Natural Hazards, vol 104 n° 3 (December 2020)  

Public [article]  inNatural Hazards > vol 104 n° 3 (December 2020) . - pp 2027 – 2049 Titre : Large-scale stochastic flood hazard analysis applied to the Po River Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : A. Curran, Auteur ; Karin De Bruijn, Auteur ; Alessio Domeneghetti, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2020 Article en page(s) : pp 2027 – 2049 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Analyse spatiale [Termes IGN] analyse des risques [Termes IGN] digue [Termes IGN] inondation [Termes IGN] modèle hydrographique [Termes IGN] modèle stochastique [Termes IGN] Pô (plaine) [Termes IGN] prévention des risques [Termes IGN] probabilité [Termes IGN] surveillance hydrologique Résumé : (auteur) Reliable hazard analysis is crucial in the flood risk management of river basins. For the floodplains of large, developed rivers, flood hazard analysis often needs to account for the complex hydrology of multiple tributaries and the potential failure of dikes. Estimating this hazard using deterministic methods ignores two major aspects of large-scale risk analysis: the spatial–temporal variability of extreme events caused by tributaries, and the uncertainty of dike breach development. Innovative stochastic methods are here developed to account for these uncertainties and are applied to the Po River in Italy. The effects of using these stochastic methods are compared against deterministic equivalents, and the methods are combined to demonstrate applications for an overall stochastic hazard analysis. The results show these uncertainties can impact extreme event water levels by more than 2 m at certain channel locations, and also affect inundation and breaching patterns. The combined hazard analysis allows for probability distributions of flood hazard and dike failure to be developed, which can be used to assess future flood risk management measures. Numéro de notice : A2020-735 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : GEOMATIQUE Nature : Article DOI : 10.1007/s11069-020-04260-w Date de publication en ligne : 08/09/2020 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04260-w Format de la ressource électronique : url article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=96350 [article]