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Rapid ecosystem change at the southern limit of the Canadian Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park / Emma L. Davis in Remote sensing, vol 13 n° 11 (June-1 2021)  

Public [article]  inRemote sensing > vol 13 n° 11 (June-1 2021) . - n° 2085 Titre : Rapid ecosystem change at the southern limit of the Canadian Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Emma L. Davis, Auteur ; Andrew Trant, Auteur ; Robert G. Way, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : n° 2085 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Applications de télédétection [Termes IGN] arbuste [Termes IGN] Arctique [Termes IGN] Canada [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] classification par forêts d'arbres décisionnels [Termes IGN] détection de changement [Termes IGN] écosystème [Termes IGN] écotone [Termes IGN] géostatistique [Termes IGN] image Landsat-ETM+ [Termes IGN] image Landsat-OLI [Termes IGN] image Terra-MODIS [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [Termes IGN] parc naturel national [Termes IGN] régression logistique [Termes IGN] surveillance de la végétation [Termes IGN] toundra Résumé : (auteur) Northern protected areas guard against habitat and species loss but are themselves highly vulnerable to environmental change due to their fixed spatial boundaries. In the low Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park (TMNP) of Canada, widespread greening has recently occurred alongside warming temperatures and regional declines in caribou. Little is known, however, about how biophysical controls mediate plant responses to climate warming, and available observational data are limited in temporal and spatial scope. In this study, we investigated the drivers of land cover change for the 9700 km2 extent of the park using satellite remote sensing and geostatistical modelling. Random forest classification was used to hindcast and simulate land cover change for four different land cover types from 1985 to 2019 with topographic and surface reflectance imagery (Landsat archive). The resulting land cover maps, in addition to topographic and biotic variables, were then used to predict where future shrub expansion is likely to occur using a binomial regression framework. Land cover hindcasts showed a 235% increase in shrub and a 105% increase in wet vegetation cover from 1985/89 to 2015/19. Shrub cover was highly persistent and displaced wet vegetation in southern, low-elevation areas, whereas wet vegetation expanded to formerly dry, mid-elevations. The predictive model identified both biotic (initial cover class, number of surrounding shrub neighbors), and topographic variables (elevation, latitude, and distance to the coast) as strong predictors of future shrub expansion. A further 51% increase in shrub cover is expected by 2039/43 relative to 2014 reference data. Establishing long-term monitoring plots within TMNP in areas where rapid vegetation change is predicted to occur will help to validate remote sensing observations and will improve our understanding of the consequences of change for biotic and abiotic components of the tundra ecosystem, including important cultural keystone species. Numéro de notice : A2021-442 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : IMAGERIE Nature : Article DOI : 10.3390/rs13112085 Date de publication en ligne : 26/05/2021 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13112085 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=97832 [article]