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A data-driven framework to manage uncertainty due to limited transferability in urban growth models / Jingyan Yu in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, vol 98 (December 2022)  

Public [article]  inComputers, Environment and Urban Systems > vol 98 (December 2022) . - n° 101892 Titre : A data-driven framework to manage uncertainty due to limited transferability in urban growth models Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Jingyan Yu, Auteur ; Alex Hagen-Zanker, Auteur ; Naratip Santitissadeekorn, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2022 Article en page(s) : n° 101892 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Analyse spatiale [Termes IGN] analyse de groupement [Termes IGN] automate cellulaire [Termes IGN] changement d'utilisation du sol [Termes IGN] croissance urbaine [Termes IGN] estimation bayesienne [Termes IGN] étalement urbain [Termes IGN] Europe (géographie politique) [Termes IGN] méthode de Monte-Carlo par chaînes de Markov [Termes IGN] modèle stochastique [Termes IGN] simulation dynamique Résumé : (auteur) The processes of urban growth vary in space and time. There is a lack of model transferability, which means that models estimated for a particular study area and period are not necessarily applicable for other periods and areas. This problem is often addressed through scenario analysis, where scenarios reflect different plausible model realisations based typically on expert consultation. This study proposes a novel framework for data-driven scenario development which, consists of three components - (i) multi-area, multi-period calibration, (ii) growth mode clustering, and (iii) cross-application. The framework finds clusters of parameters, referred to as growth modes: within the clusters, parameters represent similar spatial development trajectories; between the clusters, parameters represent substantially different spatial development trajectories. The framework is tested with a stochastic dynamic urban growth model across European functional urban areas over multiple time periods, estimated using a Bayesian method on an open global urban settlement dataset covering the period 1975–2014. The results confirm a lack of transferability, with reduced confidence in the model over the validation period, compared to the calibration period. Over the calibration period the probability that parameters estimated specifically for an area outperforms those for other areas is 96%. However, over an independent validation period, this probability drops to 72%. Four growth modes are identified along a gradient from compact to dispersed spatial developments. For most training areas, spatial development in the later period is better characterized by one of the four modes than their own historical parameters. The results provide strong support for using identified parameter clusters as a tool for data-driven and quantitative scenario development, to reflect part of the uncertainty of future spatial development trajectories. Numéro de notice : A2022-799 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : GEOMATIQUE Nature : Article DOI : 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2022.101892 Date de publication en ligne : 08/10/2022 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2022.101892 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=101966 [article]

Calibration of cellular automata urban growth models from urban genesis onwards - a novel application of Markov chain Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation / Jingyan Yu in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, vol 90 (November 2021)  

Public [article]  inComputers, Environment and Urban Systems > vol 90 (November 2021) . - n° 101689 Titre : Calibration of cellular automata urban growth models from urban genesis onwards - a novel application of Markov chain Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Jingyan Yu, Auteur ; Alex Hagen-Zanker, Auteur ; Naratip Santitissadeekorn, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : n° 101689 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Analyse spatiale [Termes IGN] analyse diachronique [Termes IGN] automate cellulaire [Termes IGN] changement d'utilisation du sol [Termes IGN] Corine Land Cover [Termes IGN] croissance urbaine [Termes IGN] estimation bayesienne [Termes IGN] Grande-Bretagne [Termes IGN] méthode de Monte-Carlo par chaînes de Markov [Termes IGN] modèle dynamique Résumé : (auteur) Cellular Automata (CA) models are widely used to study spatial dynamics of urban growth and evolving patterns of land use. One complication across CA approaches is the relatively short period of data available for calibration, providing sparse information on patterns of change and presenting problematic signal-to-noise ratios. To overcome the problem of short-term calibration, this study investigates a novel approach in which the model is calibrated based on the urban morphological patterns that emerge from a simulation starting from urban genesis, i.e., a land cover map completely void of urban land. The application of the model uses the calibrated parameters to simulate urban growth forward in time from a known urban configuration. This approach to calibration is embedded in a new framework for the calibration and validation of a Constrained Cellular Automata (CCA) model of urban growth. The investigated model uses just four parameters to reflect processes of spatial agglomeration and preservation of scarce non-urban land at multiple spatial scales and makes no use of ancillary layers such as zoning, accessibility, and physical suitability. As there are no anchor points that guide urban growth to specific locations, the parameter estimation uses a goodness-of-fit (GOF) measure that compares the built density distribution inspired by the literature on fractal urban form. The model calibration is a novel application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation (MCMC-ABC). This method provides an empirical distribution of parameter values that reflects model uncertainty. The validation uses multiple samples from the estimated parameters to quantify the propagation of model uncertainty to the validation measures. The framework is applied to two UK towns (Oxford and Swindon). The results, including cross-application of parameters, show that the models effectively capture the different urban growth patterns of both towns. For Oxford, the CCA correctly produces the pattern of scattered growth in the periphery, and for Swindon, the pattern of compact, concentric growth. The ability to identify different modes of growth has both a theoretical and practical significance. Existing land use patterns can be an important indicator of future trajectories. Planners can be provided with insight in alternative future trajectories, available decision space, and the cumulative effect of parcel-by-parcel planning decisions. Numéro de notice : A2021-616 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : GEOMATIQUE/URBANISME Nature : Article DOI : 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101689 Date de publication en ligne : 12/08/2021 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2021.101689 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=98367 [article]