Centre de documentation
scientifique

Natural disturbances risks in European boreal and temperate forests and their links to climate change : A review of modelling approaches / Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro in Forest ecology and management, vol 509 (April-1 2022)  

Public [article]  inForest ecology and management > vol 509 (April-1 2022) . - n° 120071 Titre : Natural disturbances risks in European boreal and temperate forests and their links to climate change : A review of modelling approaches Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Joyce Machado Nunes Romeiro, Auteur ; Tron Eid, Auteur ; Clara Antón-Fernández, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2022 Article en page(s) : n° 120071 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] dommage forestier causé par facteurs naturels [Termes IGN] foresterie [Termes IGN] forêt boréale [Termes IGN] forêt tempérée [Termes IGN] gelée [Termes IGN] gestion forestière adaptative [Termes IGN] incendie de forêt [Termes IGN] maladie parasitaire [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] modélisation [Termes IGN] risque naturel [Termes IGN] Scolytinae [Termes IGN] sécheresse [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (auteur) It is expected that European Boreal and Temperate forests will be greatly affected by climate change, causing natural disturbances to increase in frequency and severity. To detangle how, through forest management, we can make forests less vulnerable to the impact of natural disturbances, we need to include the risks of such disturbances in our decision-making tools. The present review investigates: i) how the most important forestry-related natural disturbances are linked to climate change, and ii) different modelling approaches that assess the risks of natural disturbances and their applicability for large-scale forest management planning. Global warming will decrease frozen soil periods, which increases root rot, snow, ice and wind damage, cascading into an increment of bark beetle damage. Central Europe will experience a decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature, which lowers tree defenses against bark beetles and increases root rot infestations. Ice and wet snow damages are expected to increase in Northern Boreal forests, and to reduce in Temperate and Southern Boreal forests. However, lack of snow cover may increase cases of frost-damaged seedlings. The increased temperatures and drought periods, together with a fuel increment from other disturbances, likely enhance wildfire risk, especially for Temperate forests. For the review of European modelling approaches, thirty-nine disturbance models were assessed and categorized according to their required input variables and to the models’ outputs. Probability models are usually common for all disturbance model approaches, however, models that predict disturbance effects seem to be scarce. Numéro de notice : A2022-190 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET/MATHEMATIQUE Nature : Article DOI : 10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120071 Date de publication en ligne : 10/02/2022 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120071 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=99946 [article]