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Simulating future LUCC by coupling climate change and human effects based on multi-phase remote sensing data / Zihao Huang in Remote sensing, vol 14 n° 7 (April-1 2022)  

Public [article]  inRemote sensing > vol 14 n° 7 (April-1 2022) . - n° 1698 Titre : Simulating future LUCC by coupling climate change and human effects based on multi-phase remote sensing data Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Zihao Huang, Auteur ; Xuejian Li, Auteur ; Qiang Du, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2022 Article en page(s) : n° 1698 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Applications de télédétection [Termes IGN] apprentissage automatique [Termes IGN] automate cellulaire [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] changement d'utilisation du sol [Termes IGN] Chine [Termes IGN] écosystème forestier [Termes IGN] forêt tropicale [Termes IGN] image Landsat-OLI [Termes IGN] image Landsat-TM [Termes IGN] interaction homme-milieu [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] modèle dynamique [Termes IGN] modèle numérique de surface [Termes IGN] puits de carbone [Termes IGN] simulation spatiale Résumé : (auteur) Future land use and cover change (LUCC) simulations play an important role in providing fundamental data to reveal the carbon cycle response of forest ecosystems to LUCC. Subtropical forests have great potential for carbon sequestration, yet their future dynamics under natural and human influences are unclear. Zhejiang Province in China is an important distribution area for subtropical forests. For forest management, it is of great significance to explore the future dynamic changes of subtropical forests in Zhejiang. As a popular LUCC spatial simulation model, the cellular automata (CA) model coupled with machine learning and LUCC quantitative demand models such as system dynamics (SD) can achieve effective LUCC simulation. Therefore, we first integrated a back propagation neural network (BPNN), a CA, and a SD model as a BPNN_CA_SD (BCS) coupled model for future LUCC simulation and then designed a slow development scenario (SD_Scenario), a harmonious development scenario (HD_Scenario), a baseline development scenario (BD_Scenario), and a fast development scenario (FD_Scenario), combining climate change and human disturbance. Thirdly, we obtained future land-use patterns in Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2084 under multiple scenarios, and finally, we analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of land use and discussed the subtropical forest dynamics of the future. The results showed the following: (1) The overall accuracy was approximately 0.8, the kappa coefficient was 0.75, and the figure of merit (FOM) value was over 28% when using the BCS model to predict LUCC, indicating that the model could predict the consistent change of LUCC accurately. (2) The future evolution of the LUCC under different scenarios varied, with the growth of bamboo forests and the decline of coniferous forests in the FD_Scenario being prominent among the forest dynamics changes. Compared with 2014, the bamboo forest in 2084 will increase by 37%, while the coniferous forest will decrease by 25%. (3) Comparing the area and spatial change of the subtropical forests, the SD_Scenario was found to be beneficial for the forest ecology. These results can provide an important decision-making reference for land-use planning and sustainable forest development in Zhejiang Province. Numéro de notice : A2022-281 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET/IMAGERIE Nature : Article DOI : 10.3390/rs14071698 Date de publication en ligne : 31/03/2022 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14071698 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=100297 [article]