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Nonparametric upscaling of bark beetle infestations and management from plot to landscape level by combining individual-based with Markov chain models / Bruno Walter Pietzsch in European Journal of Forest Research, vol 142 n° 1 (February 2023)  

Public [article]  inEuropean Journal of Forest Research > vol 142 n° 1 (February 2023) . - pp 129 - 144 Titre : Nonparametric upscaling of bark beetle infestations and management from plot to landscape level by combining individual-based with Markov chain models Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Bruno Walter Pietzsch, Auteur ; Chris Wudel, Auteur ; Uta Berger, Auteur Année de publication : 2023 Article en page(s) : pp 129 - 144 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] Allemagne [Termes IGN] chaîne de Markov [Termes IGN] dépérissement [Termes IGN] insecte nuisible [Termes IGN] métamodèle [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] Picea abies [Termes IGN] santé des forêts [Termes IGN] Scolytinae [Termes IGN] Suisse [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (auteur) Linked to climate change, drivers such as increased temperatures and decreased water availability affect forest health in complex ways by simultaneously weakening tree vitality and promoting insect pest activity. One major beneficiary of climate-induced changes is the European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus). To improve the mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts on long-term beetle infestation risks, individual-based simulation models (IBM) such as the bark beetle dispersion model IPS-SPREADS have been proven as effective tools. However, the computational costs of IBMs limit their spatial scale of application. While these tools are best suitable to simulate bark beetle dynamics on the plot level, upscaling the process to larger areas is challenging. The larger spatial scale is, nevertheless, often required to support the selection of adequate management intervention. Here, we introduce a novel two-step approach to address this challenge: (1) we use the IPS-SPREADS model to simulate the bark beetle dispersal at a local scale by dividing the research area into 250 × 250 m grid cells; and (2) we then apply a metamodel framework to upscale the results to the landscape level. The metamodel is based on Markov chains derived from the infestation probabilities of IPS-SPREADS results and extended by considering neighbor interaction and spruce dieback of each focal cell. We validated the metamodel by comparing its predictions with infestations observed in 2017 and 2018 in the Saxon Switzerland national park, Germany, and tested sanitation felling as a measure to prevent potential further outbreaks in the region. Validation showed an improvement in predictions by introducing the model extension of beetle spreading from one cell to another. The metamodel forecasts indicated an increase in the risk of infestation for adjacent forest areas. In case of a beetle mass outbreak, sanitation felling intensities of 80 percent and above seem to mitigate further outbreak progression. Numéro de notice : A2023-139 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article DOI : 10.1007/s10342-022-01512-1 Date de publication en ligne : 29/10/2022 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-022-01512-1 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=102694 [article]

Assessing the impact of forest structure disturbances on the arboreal movement and energetics of orangutans : An agent-based modeling approach / Kirana Widyastuti in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, vol 2022 ([01/09/2022])  

Public [article]  inFrontiers in Ecology and Evolution > vol 2022 [01/09/2022] . - n° 983337 Titre : Assessing the impact of forest structure disturbances on the arboreal movement and energetics of orangutans : An agent-based modeling approach Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Kirana Widyastuti, Auteur ; Romain Reuillon, Auteur ; Paul Chapron , Auteur ; Wildan Abdussalam, Auteur ; Darmae Nasir, Auteur ; Mark E. Harrison, Auteur ; Helen Morrogh-Bernard, Auteur ; Muhammad Ali Imron, Auteur ; Uta Berger, Auteur Année de publication : 2022 Projets : 3-projet - voir note / Article en page(s) : n° 983337 Note générale : bibliographie This research is part of a project funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) through the Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF), grant number NE/T010401/1. Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Analyse spatiale [Termes IGN] analyse de sensibilité [Termes IGN] analyse multicritère [Termes IGN] forêt tropicale [Termes IGN] habitat animal [Termes IGN] impact sur l'environnement [Termes IGN] modèle orienté agent [Termes IGN] Simiiformes Résumé : (auteur) Agent-based models have been developed and widely employed to assess the impact of disturbances or conservation management on animal habitat use, population development, and viability. However, the direct impacts of canopy disturbance on the arboreal movement of individual primates have been less studied. Such impacts could shed light on the cascading effects of disturbances on animal health and fitness. Orangutans are an arboreal primate that commonly encounters habitat quality deterioration due to land-use changes and related disturbances such as forest fires. Forest disturbance may, therefore, create a complex stress scenario threatening orangutan populations. Due to forest disturbances, orangutans may adapt to employ more terrestrial, as opposed to arboreal, movements potentially prolonging the search for fruiting and nesting trees. In turn, this may lead to changes in daily activity patterns (i.e., time spent traveling, feeding, and resting) and available energy budget, potentially decreasing the orangutan's fitness. We developed the agent-based simulation model BORNEO (arBOReal aNimal movEment mOdel), which explicitly describes both orangutans' arboreal and terrestrial movement in a forest habitat, depending on distances between trees and canopy structures. Orangutans in the model perform activities with a motivation to balance energy intake and expenditure through locomotion. We tested the model using forest inventory data obtained in Sebangau National Park, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. This allowed us to construct virtual forests with real characteristics including tree connectivity, thus creating the potential to expand the environmental settings for simulation experiments. In order to parameterize the energy related processes of the orangutans described in the model, we applied a computationally intensive evolutionary algorithm and evaluated the simulation results against observed behavioral patterns of orangutans. Both the simulated variability and proportion of activity budgets including feeding, resting, and traveling time for female and male orangutans confirmed the suitability of the model for its purpose. We used the calibrated model to compare the activity patterns and energy budgets of orangutans in both natural and disturbed forests . The results confirm field observations that orangutans in the disturbed forest are more likely to experience deficit energy balance due to traveling to the detriment of feeding time. Such imbalance is more pronounced in males than in females. The finding of a threshold of forest disturbances that affects a significant change in activity and energy budgets suggests potential threats to the orangutan population. Our study introduces the first agent-based model describing the arboreal movement of primates that can serve as a tool to investigate the direct impact of forest changes and disturbances on the behavior of species such as orangutans. Moreover, it demonstrates the suitability of high-performance computing to optimize the calibration of complex agent-based models describing animal behavior at a fine spatio-temporal scale (1-m and 1-s granularity). Numéro de notice : A2022-689 Affiliation des auteurs : UGE-LASTIG+Ext (2020- ) Thématique : BIODIVERSITE/FORET/GEOMATIQUE Nature : Article nature-HAL : ArtAvecCL-RevueIntern DOI : 10.3389/fevo.2022.983337 Date de publication en ligne : 23/09/2022 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2022.983337 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=101678 [article]