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Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios / Jordi Margalef- Marrase in Science of the total environment, vol 856 n° 2 (January 2023)  

Public [article]  inScience of the total environment > vol 856 n° 2 (January 2023) . - n° 159063 Titre : Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Jordi Margalef- Marrase, Auteur ; Roberto Molowny-Horas, Auteur ; Luciana Jaime, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2023 Article en page(s) : n° 159063 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] Catalogne (Espagne) [Termes IGN] croissance des arbres [Termes IGN] dépérissement [Termes IGN] dynamique de la végétation [Termes IGN] inventaire forestier étranger (données) [Termes IGN] modélisation de la forêt [Termes IGN] mortalité [Termes IGN] Pinus sylvestris [Termes IGN] résilience écologique [Termes IGN] structure d'un peuplement forestier [Termes IGN] surface terrière [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (auteur) In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability – extracted from Species Distribution Models – as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming. Numéro de notice : A2023-011 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article DOI : 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063 Date de publication en ligne : 04/10/2022 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159063 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=102122 [article]