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Species distribution modelling under climate change scenarios for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Portugal / Cristina Alegria in Forests, vol 14 n° 3 (March 2023)  

Public [article]  inForests > vol 14 n° 3 (March 2023) . - n° 591 Titre : Species distribution modelling under climate change scenarios for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Portugal Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Cristina Alegria, Auteur ; Alice M. Almeida, Auteur ; Natalia Roque, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2023 Article en page(s) : n° 591 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] classification par forêts d'arbres décisionnels [Termes IGN] distribution spatiale [Termes IGN] entropie maximale [Termes IGN] gestion forestière [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] modélisation de la forêt [Termes IGN] Pinus pinaster [Termes IGN] Portugal [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (auteur) To date, a variety of species potential distribution mapping approaches have been used, and the agreement in maps produced with different methodological approaches should be assessed. The aims of this study were: (1) to model Maritime pine potential distributions for the present and for the future under two climate change scenarios using the machine learning Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt); (2) to update the species ecological envelope maps using the same environmental data set and climate change scenarios; and (3) to perform an agreement analysis for the species distribution maps produced with both methodological approaches. The species distribution maps produced by each of the methodological approaches under study were reclassified into presence–absence binary maps of species to perform the agreement analysis. The results showed that the MaxEnt-predicted map for the present matched well the species’ current distribution, but the species ecological envelope map, also for the present, was closer to the species’ empiric potential distribution. Climate change impacts on the species’ future distributions maps using the MaxEnt were moderate, but areas were relocated. The 47.3% suitability area (regular-medium-high), in the present, increased in future climate change scenarios to 48.7%–48.3%. Conversely, the impacts in species ecological envelopes maps were higher and with greater future losses than the latter. The 76.5% suitability area (regular-favourable-optimum), in the present, decreased in future climate change scenarios to 58.2%–51.6%. The two approaches combination resulted in a 44% concordance for the species occupancy in the present, decreasing around 30%–35% in the future under the climate change scenarios. Both methodologies proved to be complementary to set species’ best suitability areas, which are key as support decision tools for planning afforestation and forest management to attain fire-resilient landscapes, enhanced forest ecosystems biodiversity, functionality and productivity. Numéro de notice : A2023-167 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article DOI : 10.3390/f14030591 Date de publication en ligne : 16/03/2023 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.3390/f14030591 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=102904 [article]