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How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions? / Marcin K. Dyderski in Global change biology, vol 24 n° 3 (March 2018)
[article]
Titre : How much does climate change threaten European forest tree species distributions? Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Marcin K. Dyderski, Auteur ; Sonia Paz, Auteur ; Lee E. Frelich, Auteur ; Andrzej M. Jagodzinski, Auteur Année de publication : 2018 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] Abies alba
[Termes IGN] Betula pendula
[Termes IGN] changement climatique
[Termes IGN] distribution spatiale
[Termes IGN] Fagus sylvatica
[Termes IGN] forêt tempérée
[Termes IGN] Fraxinus excelsior
[Termes IGN] gestion forestière
[Termes IGN] habitat (nature)
[Termes IGN] inventaire forestier étranger (données)
[Termes IGN] Larix decidua
[Termes IGN] modèle de simulation
[Termes IGN] Picea abies
[Termes IGN] Pinus sylvestris
[Termes IGN] Pseudotsuga menziesii
[Termes IGN] Quercus pedunculata
[Termes IGN] Quercus rubra
[Termes IGN] Quercus sessiliflora
[Termes IGN] Robinia pseudoacacia
[Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatiqueRésumé : (auteur) Although numerous species distribution models have been developed, most were based on insufficient distribution data or used older climate change scenarios. We aimed to quantify changes in projected ranges and threat level by the years 2061-2080, for 12 European forest tree species under three climate change scenarios. We combined tree distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, EUFORGEN and forest inventories, and we developed species distribution models using MaxEnt and 19 bioclimatic variables. Models were developed for three climate change scenarios – optimistic (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RPC8.5) – using three General Circulation Models, for the period 2061-2080. Our study revealed different responses of tree species to projected climate change. The species may be divided into three groups: “winners” – mostly late-successional species: Abies alba, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur and Q. petraea; “losers” – mostly pioneer species: Betula pendula, Larix decidua, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris and alien species – Pseudotsuga menziesii, Q. rubra and Robinia pseudoacacia, which may be also considered as “winners”. Assuming limited migration, most of the species studied would face significant decrease of suitable habitat area. The threat level was highest for species that currently have the northernmost distribution centers. Ecological consequences of the projected range contractions would be serious for both forest management and nature conservation. Numéro de notice : A2018-379 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article DOI : 10.1111/gcb.13925 En ligne : http://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13925 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=87220
in Global change biology > vol 24 n° 3 (March 2018)[article]