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Climate envelope analyses suggests significant rearrangements in the distribution ranges of Central European tree species / Gàbor Illés in Annals of Forest Science, vol 79 n° 1 (2022)  

Public [article]  inAnnals of Forest Science > vol 79 n° 1 (2022) . - n° 35 Titre : Climate envelope analyses suggests significant rearrangements in the distribution ranges of Central European tree species Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Gàbor Illés, Auteur ; Norbert Móricz, Auteur Année de publication : 2022 Article en page(s) : n° 35 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Termes IGN] adaptation (biologie) [Termes IGN] bioclimatologie [Termes IGN] classification par forêts d'arbres décisionnels [Termes IGN] Europe centrale [Termes IGN] Fagus sylvatica [Termes IGN] gestion forestière durable [Termes IGN] INSPIRE [Termes IGN] modèle dynamique [Termes IGN] modélisation de la forêt [Termes IGN] Picea abies [Termes IGN] Quercus cerris [Termes IGN] Quercus pubescens [Termes IGN] Quercus sessiliflora [Termes IGN] répartition géographique [Vedettes matières IGN] Végétation et changement climatique Résumé : (auteur) Key message: Climate envelope analysis of nine tree species shows that Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies H. Karst could lose 58% and 40% of their current distribution range. Quercus pubescens Willd and Quercus cerris L. may win areas equal with 47% and 43% of their current ranges. The ratio of poorly predictable areas increases by 105% in southern and south-eastern Europe. Context: Climate change requires adaptive forest management implementations. To achieve climate neutrality, we have to maintain and expand forest areas. Impact assessments have great importance. Aims: The study estimates the potential climate envelopes of nine European tree species for a past period (1961–1990) and for three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on the current species distribution. Methods: Climate envelopes were estimated simultaneously using the random forest method. Multi-resolution segmentation was used to determine the climatic characteristics of each species and their combinations. Models were limited to the geographical area within which the climatic conditions correspond to the climatic range of the training areas. Results: Results showed remarkable changes in the extent of geographic areas of all the investigated species’ climate envelopes. Many of the tree species of Central Europe could lose significant portions of their distribution range. Adhering to the shift in climate, these tree species shift further north as well as towards higher altitudes. Conclusion: European forests face remarkable changes, and the results support climate envelope modelling as an important tool that provides guidelines for climate adaptation to identify threatened areas or to select source and destination areas for reproductive material. Numéro de notice : A2022-631 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : FORET Nature : Article nature-HAL : ArtAvecCL-RevueIntern DOI : 10.1186/s13595-022-01154-8 Date de publication en ligne : 09/08/2022 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1186/s13595-022-01154-8 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=101395 [article]