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Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change / Geert Jan Van Oldenborgh in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol 21 n° 3 (March 2021)  

Public [article]  inNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences > vol 21 n° 3 (March 2021) . - pp 941 - 960 Titre : Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Geert Jan Van Oldenborgh, Auteur ; Folmer Krikken, Auteur ; Sophie Lewis, Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : pp 941 - 960 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Applications de télédétection [Termes IGN] analyse des risques [Termes IGN] brousse [Termes IGN] changement climatique [Termes IGN] incendie [Termes IGN] modèle météorologique [Termes IGN] planification [Termes IGN] prévention des risques [Termes IGN] série temporelle [Termes IGN] température au sol [Termes IGN] utilisation du sol Résumé : (auteur) Disastrous bushfires during the last months of 2019 and January 2020 affected Australia, raising the question to what extent the risk of these fires was exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. To answer the question for southeastern Australia, where fires were particularly severe, affecting people and ecosystems, we use a physically based index of fire weather, the Fire Weather Index; long-term observations of heat and drought; and 11 large ensembles of state-of-the-art climate models. We find large trends in the Fire Weather Index in the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA5) since 1979 and a smaller but significant increase by at least 30 % in the models. Therefore, we find that climate change has induced a higher weather-induced risk of such an extreme fire season. This trend is mainly driven by the increase of temperature extremes. In agreement with previous analyses we find that heat extremes have become more likely by at least a factor of 2 due to the long-term warming trend. However, current climate models overestimate variability and tend to underestimate the long-term trend in these extremes, so the true change in the likelihood of extreme heat could be larger, suggesting that the attribution of the increased fire weather risk is a conservative estimate. We do not find an attributable trend in either extreme annual drought or the driest month of the fire season, September–February. The observations, however, show a weak drying trend in the annual mean. For the 2019/20 season more than half of the July–December drought was driven by record excursions of the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode, factors which are included in the analysis here. The study reveals the complexity of the 2019/20 bushfire event, with some but not all drivers showing an imprint of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, the study concludes with a qualitative review of various vulnerability and exposure factors that each play a role, along with the hazard in increasing or decreasing the overall impact of the bushfires. Numéro de notice : A2021-395 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : IMAGERIE Nature : Article DOI : 10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021 Date de publication en ligne : 11/03/2021 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021 Format de la ressource électronique : URL article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=97684 [article]

Integration of an InSAR and ANN for sinkhole susceptibility mapping: A case study from Kirikkale-Delice (Turkey) / Hakan Nefeslioglu in ISPRS International journal of geo-information, vol 10 n° 3 (March 2021)  

Public [article]  inISPRS International journal of geo-information > vol 10 n° 3 (March 2021) . - n° 119 Titre : Integration of an InSAR and ANN for sinkhole susceptibility mapping: A case study from Kirikkale-Delice (Turkey) Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Hakan Nefeslioglu, Auteur ; Beste Tavus, Auteur ; Melahat Er, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : n° 119 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Applications de télédétection [Termes IGN] aléa [Termes IGN] analyse de sensibilité [Termes IGN] carte géomorphologique [Termes IGN] cartographie des risques [Termes IGN] classification par réseau neuronal [Termes IGN] effondrement de terrain [Termes IGN] grotte [Termes IGN] image optique [Termes IGN] image radar moirée [Termes IGN] image Sentinel-SAR [Termes IGN] itinéraire [Termes IGN] surveillance géologique [Termes IGN] train à grande vitesse [Termes IGN] Turquie [Termes IGN] voie ferrée [Termes IGN] vulnérabilité Résumé : (auteur) Suitable route determination for linear engineering structures is a fundamental problem in engineering geology. Rapid evaluation of alternative routes is essential, and novel approaches are indispensable. This study aims to integrate various InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques for sinkhole susceptibility mapping in the Kirikkale-Delice Region of Turkey, in which sinkhole formations have been observed in evaporitic units and a high-speed train railway route has been planned. Nine months (2019-2020) of ground deformations were determined using data from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel-1A/1B satellites. A sinkhole inventory was prepared manually using satellite optical imagery and employed in an ANN (Artificial Neural Network) model with topographic conditioning factors derived from InSAR digital elevation models (DEMs) and morphological lineaments. The results indicate that high deformation areas on the vertical displacement map and sinkhole-prone areas on the sinkhole susceptibility map (SSM) almost coincide. InSAR techniques are useful for long-term deformation monitoring and can be successfully associated in sinkhole susceptibility mapping using an ANN. Continuous monitoring is recommended for existing sinkholes and highly susceptible areas, and SSMs should be updated with new results. Up-to-date SSMs are crucial for the route selection, planning, and construction of important transportation elements, as well as settlement site selection, in such regions. Numéro de notice : A2021-232 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : IMAGERIE Nature : Article nature-HAL : ArtAvecCL-RevueIntern DOI : 10.3390/ijgi10030119 Date de publication en ligne : 27/02/2021 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10030119 Format de la ressource électronique : url article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=97226 [article]

An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards / Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho in Natural Hazards, Vol 105 n° 3 (February 2021)  

Public [article]  inNatural Hazards > Vol 105 n° 3 (February 2021) . - pp 2409 - 2429 Titre : An improved rainfall-threshold approach for robust prediction and warning of flood and flash flood hazards Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Geraldo Moura Ramos Filho, Auteur ; Victor Hugo Rabelo Coelho, Auteur ; Emerson da Silva Freitas, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : pp 2409 - 2429 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Analyse spatiale [Termes IGN] crue [Termes IGN] Indice de précipitations antérieures [Termes IGN] indice de risque [Termes IGN] inondation [Termes IGN] méthode robuste [Termes IGN] prévention des risques [Termes IGN] risque naturel [Termes IGN] Sao Paulo [Termes IGN] seuillage [Termes IGN] surveillance hydrologique Résumé : (auteur) This paper presents an improved method of using threshold of peak rainfall intensity for robust flood/flash flood evaluation and warnings in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The improvements involve the use of two tolerance levels and the delineating of an intermediate threshold by incorporating an exponential curve that relates rainfall intensity and Antecedent Precipitation Index (API). The application of the tolerance levels presents an average increase of 14% in the Probability of Detection (POD) of flood and flash flood occurrences above the upper threshold. Moreover, a considerable exclusion (63%) of non-occurrences of floods and flash floods in between the two thresholds significantly reduce the number of false alarms. The intermediate threshold using the exponential curves also exhibits improvements for almost all time steps of both hydrological hazards, with the best results found for floods correlating 8-h peak intensity and 8 days API, with POD and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) values equal to 81% and 82%, respectively. This study provides strong indications that the new proposed rainfall threshold-based approach can help reduce the uncertainties in predicting the occurrences of floods and flash floods. Numéro de notice : A2020-204 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : GEOMATIQUE Nature : Article DOI : 10.1007/s11069-020-04405-x Date de publication en ligne : 03/11/2020 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04405-x Format de la ressource électronique : url article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=97167 [article]

A dynamic bidirectional coupled surface flow model for flood inundation simulation / Chunbo Jiang in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 21 n° 2 (February 2021)  

Public [article]  inNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences > Vol 21 n° 2 (February 2021) . - pp 497 - 515 Titre : A dynamic bidirectional coupled surface flow model for flood inundation simulation Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Chunbo Jiang, Auteur ; Qi Zhou, Auteur ; Wangyang Yu, Auteur ; et al., Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : pp 497 - 515 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Analyse spatiale [Termes IGN] Chine [Termes IGN] crue [Termes IGN] inondation [Termes IGN] modèle de simulation [Termes IGN] modèle dynamique [Termes IGN] modèle hydrographique [Termes IGN] prévention des risques Résumé : (auteur) Flood disasters frequently threaten people and property all over the world. Therefore, an effective numerical model is required to predict the impacts of floods. In this study, a dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model (DBCM) is developed with the implementation of characteristic wave theory, in which the boundary between these two models can dynamically adapt according to local flow conditions. The proposed model accounts for both mass and momentum transfer on the coupling boundary and was validated via several benchmark tests. The results show that the DBCM can effectively reproduce the process of flood propagation and also account for surface flow interaction between non-inundation and inundation regions. The DBCM was implemented for the floods simulation that occurred at Helin Town located in Chongqing, China, which shows the capability of the model for flood risk early warning and future management. Numéro de notice : A2021-168 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : GEOMATIQUE Nature : Article DOI : 10.5194/nhess-21-497-2021 Date de publication en ligne : 03/02/2021 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-497-2021 Format de la ressource électronique : url article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=97107 [article]

A GIS- and AHP-based approach to map fire risk: a case study of Kuan Kreng peat swamp forest, Thailand / Narissara Nuthammachot in Geocarto international, vol 36 n° 2 ([01/02/2021])  

Public [article]  inGeocarto international > vol 36 n° 2 [01/02/2021] . - pp 212 - 225 Titre : A GIS- and AHP-based approach to map fire risk: a case study of Kuan Kreng peat swamp forest, Thailand Type de document : Article/Communication Auteurs : Narissara Nuthammachot, Auteur ; Dimitris Stratoulias, Auteur Année de publication : 2021 Article en page(s) : pp 212 - 225 Note générale : bibliographie Langues : Anglais (eng) Descripteur : [Vedettes matières IGN] Applications SIG [Termes IGN] cartographie des risques [Termes IGN] climat [Termes IGN] forêt marécageuse [Termes IGN] historique des données [Termes IGN] incendie de forêt [Termes IGN] outil d'aide à la décision [Termes IGN] prévention des risques [Termes IGN] processus de hiérarchisation analytique [Termes IGN] Thaïlande [Termes IGN] tourbière Résumé : (auteur) Forest fires are abrupt transformations of the natural ecosystem and management authorities are required to take preventive measures to tackle fire events. Geographic information system (GIS) is a powerful tool for providing information with a spatial context and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is a well-established technique for multiple criteria decision making. In this study, GIS and AHP are combined to analyse seven fire-related factors related to climate, topography and human influence. Fire risk for a peat swamp forested area in Kuan Kreng, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, Thailand is estimated in five categories. 705 historic fire events from 2006 to 2017 are used to validate our approach. 82% of the historic fire incidents occurred within the highest fire risk class categories while only a few omission errors were recorded. The combined approach of GIS and AHP techniques can yield useful fire risk maps, which can consequently be used for future planning and management of fire prone areas. Numéro de notice : A2021-083 Affiliation des auteurs : non IGN Thématique : GEOMATIQUE Nature : Article nature-HAL : ArtAvecCL-RevueIntern DOI : 10.1080/10106049.2019.1611946 Date de publication en ligne : 10/06/2019 En ligne : https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2019.1611946 Format de la ressource électronique : url article Permalink : https://documentation.ensg.eu/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=96832 [article]

Optimizing flood mapping using multi-synthetic aperture radar images for regions of the lower mekong basin in Vietnam / Vu Anh Tuan in European journal of remote sensing, vol 54 n° 1 (2021)  

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Reclaimed-airport surface-deformation monitoring by improved permanent-scatterer interferometric synthetic-aperture radar: a case study of Shenzhen Bao'an international airport, China / Lu Miao in Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, PERS, vol 87 n° 2 (February 2021)  

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GIS-based multicriteria evaluation for earthquake response: a case study of expert opinion in Vancouver, Canada / Blake Byron Walker in Natural Hazards, Vol 105 n° 2 (January 2021)  

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Assessing the accuracy of remotely sensed fire datasets across the southwestern Mediterranean Basin / Luis Felipe Galizia in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol 21 n° 1 (January 2021)  

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Bridging the gap / Grazia Brunetta (2021)  

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Climate variability and change in the 21th Century / Stefanos Stefanidis (2021)  

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Deep learning for wildfire progression monitoring using SAR and optical satellite image time series / Puzhao Zhang (2021)  

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Développement d’outils d’exploitation des archives photographiques aériennes de l’IGN pour caractériser l’évolution pluridécennale du littoral sur l’île de la Réunion / Adinane Oladjidé Ayichemi (2021)  

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Drought propagation and its impact on groundwater hydrology of wetlands: a case study on the Doode Bemde nature reserve (Belgium) / Buruk Kitachew Wossenyeleh in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol 21 n° 1 (January 2021)  

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Dynamic mechanism of blown sand hazard formation at the Jieqiong section of the Lhasa–Shigatse railway / Shengbo Xie in Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, vol 12 n° 1 (2021)  

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